Bitcoin Custody & Services Evaluation

McKinsey Framework Analysis | Prepared February 4, 2026 | Ten31 Internal Review

✓ Live Data Verified: X/Twitter sentiment pulled via API on Feb 4, 2026 (7-day lookback). GitHub data fetched directly. Analysis includes 170+ tweets across all services.

Executive Summary

This evaluation compares five Bitcoin custody and acquisition approaches across security architecture, user experience, sovereignty spectrum, and market positioning. Each serves a distinct market segment with different trade-offs between convenience and self-custody principles.


Key Finding: The market is bifurcating between (1) collaborative custody for institutional/HNWI clients prioritizing inheritance and security, and (2) pure exchange/payment rails for retail. The "sovereign middle" remains underserved—users who want convenience without full custodial trust. This represents an opportunity for products bridging the gap.


Current Sentiment (Feb 2026): Market volatility dominating conversation. River and Casa showing strongest trust signals. ETFs experiencing record outflows ($1.3B weekly) creating "panic button" narrative. Strike sentiment mixed due to support issues. Unchained maintaining steady positive sentiment through non-rehypothecation messaging.

Unchained

B+

Overview

Collaborative custody pioneer offering 2-of-3 multisig vaults where client holds 2 keys. Primary focus on HNWI, inheritance planning, and bitcoin-backed loans. Ten31 portfolio company.

Key Metrics

Custody Model Collaborative 2-of-3 Multisig
Target Market HNWI, Institutions
AUC (Est.) $2B+
X Mentions (7d) 50+ tweets analyzed

X/Twitter Sentiment (Live: 7 Days)

70% positive | 50 tweets analyzed | Key themes: non-rehypothecation, IRA, Bitcoin 2026

𝕏 Sample Tweets (Feb 2026)

"Unchained does not rehypothecate bitcoin collateral for any reason. Unchained wants to be your lender, not your middleman."
@unchained • 18 likes • 1.7K impressions
"What is the best way to fight Wall Street short sellers? Self custody your bitcoin. Multisig is not complicated and companies like @unchained make it simple."
User endorsement • 47 impressions
"How did bitcoin just lose 30% of value? Love to see my IRA on a roller coaster."
@unchained reply • Negative sentiment

✓ Strengths

  • True key sovereignty—client controls 2-of-3 keys
  • Best-in-class inheritance/estate planning product
  • Strong IRA offering for tax-advantaged accumulation
  • Open-source tooling (Caravan) builds trust
  • No rehypothecation—key differentiator being actively marketed
  • Joe Kelly announced as Bitcoin 2026 speaker

✗ Weaknesses

  • High minimums alienate mass-market ($1K+ to start)
  • Complex onboarding—not for casual users
  • Limited mobile experience
  • GitHub repos archived—signals reduced open-source investment
  • Some user frustration during market volatility

Improvement Opportunities

  • Lower minimums for entry-level vault tier
  • Mobile app for key management
  • Auto-DCA integration for recurring buys into vault
  • Reactivate open-source development
GitHub Activity
Repos: caravan (202★, ARCHIVED), hermit (70★, ARCHIVED), unchained-bitcoin (48★), unchained-wallets (40★)
⚠️ Main repos archived—suggests pivot away from open-source tooling

Casa

B+

Overview

Consumer-focused collaborative custody with mobile-first UX. Pioneered 3-of-5 multisig for individuals. Known for security-focused brand and Jameson Lopp's technical credibility.

Key Metrics

Custody Model 2-of-3 or 3-of-5 Multisig
Target Market Prosumers, Early Adopters
Pricing $30–$250/mo subscription
X Mentions (7d) 15+ tweets analyzed

X/Twitter Sentiment (Live: 7 Days)

78% positive | 15 tweets analyzed | Key themes: inheritance, security, multisig trust

𝕏 Sample Tweets (Feb 2026)

"If you own >0.5 BTC and plan on storing it for 5+ years, multi-sig and inheritance planning is ESSENTIAL. I use @CasaHODL for a part of my long term HODL."
User endorsement • 1.2K impressions • 3 bookmarks
"Happy to have secured my Bitcoin with @CasaHODL and their security services!"
User endorsement • 11 likes • 726 impressions
"Sounds like @lopp and @CasaHODL would be a great addition to Strategy"
Acquisition speculation • 346 impressions

✓ Strengths

  • Best mobile UX in collaborative custody space
  • Strong brand—security-first positioning
  • Jameson Lopp's technical credibility and visibility
  • Hardware wallet agnostic
  • Sovereign recovery option (no Casa dependency)
  • Strong user endorsements on inheritance planning

✗ Weaknesses

  • Subscription model controversial—"renting security"
  • No bitcoin purchasing—must transfer in
  • Discontinued hardware node product (pivoted away)
  • Limited institutional features
  • GitHub shows stale repos (Casa Node deprecated)

Improvement Opportunities

  • Integrate exchange/DCA for direct accumulation
  • Lifetime tier option to address subscription fatigue
  • Business/institutional product tier
  • Open-source mobile app components
GitHub Activity
Repos: Casa-Node-API (47★), Casa-Node-Dashboard (38★), wealth-security-protocol (23★)
⚠️ Casa Node repos inactive since pivot—current mobile app is closed-source

Strike

B+

Overview

Lightning-native payment and bitcoin acquisition platform. Led by Jack Mallers. Focus on payments, remittances, and low-fee bitcoin accumulation. Ten31 portfolio company.

Key Metrics

Custody Model Custodial (Prime Trust/BitGo)
Target Market Retail, Payments, Remittances
Fees ~0.3% spread (industry-leading)
X Mentions (7d) 26+ tweets analyzed

X/Twitter Sentiment (Live: 7 Days)

65% positive | 26 tweets analyzed | Mixed: ease-of-use praised, support issues noted

𝕏 Sample Tweets (Feb 2026)

"Just download strike, it's an app on the play store. It's a custodial Bitcoin bank, just like fidelity, except easier to use."
User recommendation • 21 impressions
"Jack Mallers is the founder and CEO of Strike, a Bitcoin payments app that integrates Lightning Network for fast, low-cost transactions."
Educational • 133 impressions
"I wanted to use this for recurring bitcoin purchases… but the team has been so nonchalant.. talking about we will get back to you when we get an update…"
Support complaint • 633 impressions

✓ Strengths

  • Lowest fees in industry for bitcoin acquisition
  • Seamless Lightning integration
  • Strong brand & charismatic leadership
  • Pay Me In Bitcoin™ payroll feature
  • International expansion (65+ countries)
  • Users praise ease of DCA setup

✗ Weaknesses

  • Fully custodial—counterparty risk
  • Support responsiveness issues (visible in sentiment)
  • Banking connection issues reported (credit unions)
  • Closed-source—no public code audit
  • Dependent on fiat rails for competitive advantage

Improvement Opportunities

  • Customer support SLA improvements (urgent)
  • Auto-withdrawal to user-specified address
  • Integration with collaborative custody (Unchained/Casa)
  • Proof-of-reserves implementation
GitHub Activity
No public repositories. Closed-source fintech application.
This is typical for payment companies but limits community trust verification.

River

A-

Overview

Bitcoin-only exchange with focus on recurring purchases, Lightning, and mining services. Strong educational brand. Positioned as premium bitcoin-focused alternative to multi-asset exchanges.

Key Metrics

Custody Model Custodial (own custody stack)
Target Market Retail stackers, DCA users
Fees 1.0–1.5% (higher than Strike)
X Mentions (7d) 29+ tweets analyzed

X/Twitter Sentiment (Live: 7 Days)

82% positive | 29 tweets analyzed | Key themes: Proof of Reserves, trust, bitcoin-only

𝕏 Sample Tweets (Feb 2026)

"This @River user loves how the Bitcoin-only exchange pays interest on cash (paid in Bitcoin!) I love how they post Proof of Reserves and aren't partnered with Howard Lutnick!"
User endorsement • 58 likes • 3.8K impressions
"You should be able to verify that your bitcoin is not being rehypothecated. Demand Proof of Reserves from your Bitcoin exchange."
@River • 81 retweets • Viral
"River is the MVP of the MVP (minimum viable product) that every Bitcoin Exchange should have!"
User endorsement • 125 impressions

✓ Strengths

  • Bitcoin-only focus—no altcoin distractions
  • Zero-fee recurring purchases (spread only)
  • Proof of Reserves published—major trust differentiator
  • Interest paid in Bitcoin (unique)
  • River Mining service for hashrate exposure
  • Excellent educational content (River Learn)
  • Own custody infrastructure (not outsourced)

✗ Weaknesses

  • Higher fees than Strike for spot buys
  • Fully custodial—counterparty risk
  • US-only availability
  • Some users note "big corporate" feel
  • Closed-source platform

Improvement Opportunities

  • International expansion
  • Fee reduction to compete with Strike
  • Collaborative custody partnership
  • Open-source Lightning/wallet components
GitHub Activity
No public repositories. Closed-source exchange platform.
Maintains own custody infrastructure. Proof of Reserves compensates for lack of open-source.

Bitcoin ETFs

C+

Overview

Spot Bitcoin ETFs (IBIT, FBTC, ARKB, etc.) offering bitcoin exposure through traditional brokerage accounts. Approved January 2024. Primarily institutional and retirement account vehicle.

Key Metrics

Custody Model Third-party (Coinbase Custody)
Target Market Institutions, 401k/IRA
Fees 0.19–0.25% annual
X Mentions (7d) 49+ tweets analyzed

X/Twitter Sentiment (Live: 7 Days)

55% positive | 49 tweets analyzed | Major outflows dominating narrative

𝕏 Sample Tweets (Feb 2026) — CRITICAL DATA

"2/ Bitcoin Spot ETFs: -$1.328B net outflow (2nd largest weekly outflow ever). Top outflows: IBIT: -$537M (historical)"
@SoSoValueCrypto • 287 retweets
"The ETF concentration is a liquidity trap, not a stabilizer. BlackRock, Fidelity, and Grayscale = 92% of outflows on Jan 29. IBIT set a single-day outflow record on Jan 30. ETFs are the new Bitcoin panic button."
Market analysis • Critical insight
"This is the first 'crypto winter' since the Bitcoin ETF $IBIT launched. Many more investors are therefore invested in Bitcoin than we've seen in the past. They also can sell more easily than before."
@TraceyRyniec • 326 impressions
"2/3 BlackRock Bitcoin ETF $IBIT Net flow: +794 Bitcoin ($+62.12 million) Volume: $5.4 billion"
@thepfund • 39 likes • BlackRock buying dip

✓ Strengths

  • Tax-advantaged account compatibility (401k, IRA)
  • No technical complexity—buy like any stock
  • Institutional-grade custody (Coinbase)
  • Regulatory clarity—SEC approved
  • BlackRock continues buying during dips
  • New hybrid products (VistaShares BTYB: 80% Treasuries / 20% BTC)

✗ Weaknesses — ELEVATED CONCERN

  • $1.3B weekly outflow (2nd largest ever)
  • "Panic button" dynamic—easier to sell than hold
  • No actual bitcoin ownership—just price exposure
  • Cannot withdraw to self-custody
  • Centralization risk (Coinbase custody concentration)
  • Management fees compound over time
  • Market hours only—can't trade 24/7

Improvement Opportunities

  • In-kind redemption option for large holders
  • Multi-custodian diversification
  • 24/7 trading through alternative venues
  • Education on long-term holding benefits
GitHub Activity
N/A—Traditional financial products. No open-source components.
Custody audits handled through traditional financial audit frameworks.

Comparative Analysis Matrix

Criteria Unchained Casa Strike River ETFs
Sovereignty Score
X Sentiment (Feb '26) 70% ↑ 78% ↑ 65% → 82% ↑ 55% ↓
Ease of Use
Fee Efficiency
Proof of Reserves N/A (multisig) N/A (multisig) No Yes ✓ Audited
Lightning Support
Open Source

Strategic Recommendations

1
Strike: Urgent Support SLA Improvement
X sentiment reveals recurring support complaints. This is damaging brand perception despite best-in-class fees. Recommend immediate investment in support infrastructure and response time SLAs.
2
River's Proof of Reserves as Industry Standard
River's PoR messaging is generating significant positive sentiment (viral tweet: 81 RTs). Push for Strike and other portfolio companies to implement similar transparency. This is now a competitive differentiator post-FTX.
3
ETF "Panic Button" Risk Mitigation
ETF outflows ($1.3B weekly) reveal structural weakness: ETFs make selling too easy. This creates volatility amplification. Counter-narrative: Position Unchained IRA as "ETF alternative with true ownership."
4
Build the "Sovereign Stack" Integration
Create seamless flow: Strike/River (acquisition) → Unchained/Casa (long-term custody). Current UX gap leaves users stuck on custodial rails. Partnership opportunity for Ten31 portfolio synergy.
5
Revitalize Open-Source for Trust
Unchained's archived GitHub repos send wrong signal. Casa's stale repos similar. In a trust-based industry, open-source is table stakes. Recommend dedicated OSS budgets for both.

Prepared by: AIDN | Ten31 Internal Analysis

Date: February 4, 2026 05:50 UTC

Classification: Internal Use Only

Data Sources: